Cost-Effectiveness of Convalescent Plasma for COVID-19: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis of the CONCOR-1 Randomized Trial (preprint)

Background The CONvalescent Plasma for Hospitalized Adults With COVID-19 Respiratory Illness (CONCOR-1) trial was a multicenter randomized controlled trial assessing convalescent plasma in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Though stopped early due to the lack of treatment benefit, the cost-effectiveness of convalescent plasma provides insight into its potential as an alternative treatment option in resource constrained settings.Methods Individual patient data on health outcomes and healthcare resource utilization from the CONCOR-1 trial were used to conduct the analysis from the Canadian public payer’s perspective with a time horizon of 30 days post-randomization. Baseline and 30-day EQ-5D-5L was measured to calculate quality-adjusted survival. All costs are presented in 2021 Canadian dollars. The base case assessed the EQ-5D-5L scores of patients reporting at both timepoints, and a utility score of 0 was assigned for patients who died within 30 days. Costs for all patients enrolled in the study were used. The sensitivity analysis utilizes EQ-5D-5L scores from the same population but only uses the costs from this population.Results 940 patients were randomized: 627 received CCP and 313 received standard care. The total costs were $28,716 (standard deviation, $25,380) and $24,258 ($22,939) for the convalescent plasma and standard care arms respectively. EQ-5D-5L scores were 0.61 both arms (p = 0.85) at baseline. At 30 days, EQ-5D-5L scores were 0.63 and 0.64 for patients in the convalescent plasma and standard care arms respectively (p = 0.46). The incremental cost was $4,458 and incremental quality-adjusted life day was − 0.078.Conclusion These results indicate that convalescent plasma was less effective and more costly than standard care in treating hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The sensitivity analysis yielded similar results to the base case analysis.

Convalescent plasma for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and the effect of plasma antibodies: a randomized controlled, open-label trial (preprint)

The efficacy of convalescent plasma for COVID-19 is unclear. While most randomized controlled trials have shown negative results, uncontrolled studies have suggested that the antibody content may influence patient outcomes. We conducted an open-label, randomized controlled trial of convalescent plasma for adults with COVID-19 receiving oxygen within 12 days of respiratory symptom onset. Patients were allocated 2:1 to 500 mL of convalescent plasma or standard of care. The composite primary outcome was intubation or death by 30 days. The effect of convalescent plasma antibodies on the primary outcome was assessed by logistic regression. The trial was terminated at 78% of planned enrollment after meeting stopping criteria for futility. 940 patients were randomized and 921 patients were included in the intent-to-treat analysis. Intubation or death occurred in 199/614 (32.4%) in the convalescent plasma arm and 86/307 (28.0%) in the standard of care arm; relative risk (RR) 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94-1.43; p=0.18). Patients in the convalescent plasma arm had more serious adverse events (33.4% vs. 26.4%; RR=1.27, 95% CI 1.02-1.57, p=0.034). The antibody content significantly modulated the therapeutic effect of convalescent plasma. In multivariate analysis, each standard log increase in neutralization or antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity independently reduced the potential harmful effect of plasma (OR=0.74; 0.57-0.95 and OR=0.66; 0.50-0.87, respectively), while IgG against the full transmembrane Spike protein increased it (OR=1.53, 95% CI 1.14-2.05). Convalescent plasma did not reduce the risk of intubation or death at 30 days among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Transfusion of convalescent plasma with unfavourable antibody profiles may be associated with worse clinical outcomes compared to standard care.

Data-driven Fair Resource Allocation For Novel Emerging Epidemics: A COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Case Study (preprint)

Epidemics are a serious public health threat, and the resources for mitigating their effects are typically limited. Decision-makers face challenges in forecasting the supply and demand for these resources as prior information about the disease is often not available, the behaviour of the disease can periodically change (either naturally or as a result of public health policies) and can differ by geographical region. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using scarce resources such as blood products as a randomized intervention are affected by epidemics. In this work, we discuss a model that is suitable for short-term real-time supply and demand forecasting during emerging outbreaks. We consider a case study of demand forecasting and allocating scarce quantities of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) in an international multi-site RCT involving multiple hospital hubs across Canada (excluding Qu\'ebec). We propose a data-driven mixed-integer programming (MIP) resource allocation model that assigns available resources to maximize a notion of fairness among the resource-demanding entities. Numerical results from applying our MIP model to the case study suggest that our approach can help balance the supply and demand of limited products such as CCP and minimize the unmet demand ratios of the demand entities. We analyze the sensitivity of our model to different allocation settings and show that our model assigns equitable allocations across the entities.

Convalescent plasma for adults with acute COVID-19 respiratory illness (CONCOR-1): Study protocol for an international, multicenter, randomized, open-label trial (preprint)

Background: Convalescent plasma has been used for numerous viral diseases including influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Ebola virus; however, evidence to support its use is weak. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus responsible for the 2019 global pandemic of COVID-19 community acquired pneumonia. We have undertaken a randomized controlled trial to assess the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.Methods: CONCOR-1 is an open-label, multicenter, randomized trial. Inclusion criteria include: patients >16 years; admitted to hospital with COVID-19 infection; receiving supplemental oxygen for respiratory complications of COVID-19; and, availability of blood group compatible CCP. Exclusion criteria are: onset of respiratory symptoms more than 12 days prior to randomization; intubated or planned for intubation; and previous severe reactions to plasma. Consenting patients will be randomized 2:1 to receive either approximately 500 mL of CCP or standard of care. CCP will be collected from donors who have recovered from COVID-19 and who have detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies quantified serologically. The primary outcome is intubation or death at Day 30. Secondary outcomes include ventilator free days, length of stay in intensive care or hospital, transfusion reactions, serious adverse events, and reduction in SARS-CoV-2 viral load.  Exploratory analyses include patients who received CCP containing high titre antibodies. A sample size of 1200 patients gives 80% power to detect a 25% relative risk reduction assuming a 30% baseline risk of intubation or death at 30 days (two-sided test; α =0.05). An interim analysis and sample size re-estimation will be done by an unblinded independent biostatistician after primary outcome data are available for 50% of the target recruitment (n= 600). Discussion: This trial will determine whether CCP will reduce intubation or death non-intubated adults with COVID-19. The trial will also provide information on the role of and thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers and neutralization assays for donor qualification.Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04348656; registered 16 April 2020; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04348656?term=NCT04348656&draw=2&rank=1